If Operation Spiders’ Web is more than just an isolated attack on Russia’s air bases and is continuing to strike deep into Russian soil, then this has serious potential to finally bring Putin to the negotiating table.
Other than that, I think this will be a bloody war of attrition that Zelenskyy has no chance of winning.
The EU is bankrolling Ukraine, Russia has no friends and no money. Ukraine will easily outlast Russia. They just need to stay put and keep defending their positions while taking out Russia’s capacity to attack.
NOT a bluff
But he doesn’t have the cards!
I know that’s sarcasm, but your comment made me think. I strongly disagree with those kinds of remarks. :)
This war isn’t like a game of Poker, where everyone is dealt from the same deck. It’s more like MTG, where the real game is about who can make better strategic use of their card-buying budget.
Yeah me too. That’s why I make fun of Trump with my comment
…but Ukraine already has steady domestic production of 155mm armored self propelled artillery now, so yes AND Ukraine has better cards.
om, yes he does
he only needs this card plus some low mana cost drone cards to win anyways
Putin will never stop being a war criminal until the day he dies. If he takes over all of Ukraine, he will move to Moldova then Georgia then Latvia then Estonia and so on.
The moment this war ends, the Russian Federation will collapse. People forget but Russia has collapsed twice in the last century by doing the same things it’s doing now.
It collapsed the first time when the out of touch tyrannical Tsarist government dragged the country into a needless war (WWI) while the country was going through a crises. The country collapsed and formed the Soviet Union.
It collapsed a second time when the out of touch tyrannical communist government dragged the country into a needless war (Soviet invasion of Afghanistan) while the country was going through a crises. The country collapsed and formed the Russian Federation.
Now the same thing is happening. The country has an out touch tyrannical dictator that dragged the country into a needless war during a time of crises. Once the war is over the country will revolt and collapse once again.
The second collapse was to a great part also due to chernobyl. It’s economic consequences often get overlooked. They had to use a LOT of resources and military personnel to contain it and preventing half of eastern Europe becoming unliveable wastelands.
We won’t budge, let them come!
Russia has treaties with Britain since like 1904 that obligated it to engage in WWI. Thats how the murder of a Serbian devolved into a world war
Outcome of leading to the downfall of the regime regardless, it was a little different than Afghanistan or Ukraine
They also were figthing and got defeated by Japan right before that - did contribute to the downfall a little
Not to be thát person, but Archduke Franz Ferdinand was not a Serb, he was Austrian. Even though Austria-Hungary did annex Bosnia and Herzegovina in the late 19th century, Franz Ferdinand was not born there - in fact he was born before the annexation.
Unless you mean his killer, but then your wording is a little off and I would say “murder BY a Serbian.” Even so, the ethnicity of the murderer wasn’t really as important as his target. ;)
Thats how the murder of a Serbian devolved into a world war
Archduke Franz Ferdinand was Austrian.
technically you don’t stop being anything when you die except for alive.
asshole when you’re alive? asshole when you’re dead.
you do lose the ability to be anything but that after you doe though.
at least until you’re forgotten… which he did solidify his place in history as one of the weakest bitches in post cold war Russian history.
Yeah, it seems authoritarianism is bad. Hopefully Russians will figure that out the next go around.
“and then it got worse”
As American example shows us in real time, it’s not something you just “figure out” once. Democracy requires society to always win in eternal struggle against human nature.
Ronald Reagan was a terrible politician, but he absolutely nailed this quote:
Perhaps you and I have lived too long with this miracle to properly be appreciative. Freedom is a fragile thing and it’s never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by way of inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people. And those in world history who have known freedom and then lost it have never known it again.
He was a great politician. He was a terrible human being.
No self-awareness in how he helped setup being one generation away from the extinction of freedom.
Wonder what Trump will do to stop this
Zelenskyy: US has sent 20,000 missiles bound for Ukraine to Middle East instead
Nothing makes a US President feel better after a bad day like bombing the middle east
“I love the smell of napalm in the morning, it smells like victory”
He’ll try to stop/derail it if he can’t claim ownership of the results.
The whole mineral rights stuff is going to be interesting to see play out. Because Zelenskyy, and Ukrainians in general, should very much beware Yankees bearing “gifts” at this point, because we are not the same country we were 6 months ago.
It’s an odd one, because it only applies to new developments. As far as anyone knows, Ukraine doesn’t have any rare earths worth mining, and doesn’t have a lot else new to mine, either. However, that’s based on old geological surveys. They might well have something, but it’s all speculation.
It would be really hilarious if it turns out that they’re like “yeah sorry it’s just uninteresting rocks and terrestrial strata”
It’s not like he needs to uphold the deal beyond ending the war. The US certainly doesn’t honour its agreements anymore.
The US certainly doesn’t honour its agreements anymore.
Native Americans: “Anymore?..”
He’ll try to stop/derail it
if he can’t claim ownership of the results.Trump never gave a shit about peace to begin with; he just wanted to fellate Putin.
Remember that Trump ultimately betrays everyone. The fact that he hasn’t done it to Putin yet is unusual, but it doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
Remember that Trump ultimately betrays everyone.
True, however Putin is the dominate dog here. Krasnov is weak, confused and incompetent.
Redirect 20,000 anti-drone missiles away from Ukraine, apparently
Right now it looks more like that’ll be a Musk project.
They should do Trump next. Americans will gladly pay for it
Zelensky is a bit like a CEO presenting his company’s prospects. He was talking like this two years ago, too.
I personally think he’s not wrong. Just - until Kremlin gang’s members and their families are being caught and jailed\deported all over the globe, or at least in NATO countries, this is all bullshit. Well, maybe after failing in Ukraine they’ll attack some smaller and weaker country, just to show themselves they can defeat someone. And maybe they’ll try again.
In any case - yes, that leadership keeps Russia weak, inefficient, dependent, but as everyone can see, it’s also capable of destruction on scale too big to allow. So maybe some optimism should be applied and the goal be for Russia’s regime to change and for it to have a democracy that may make its potential useful for everyone around. The “keeping it weak” approach, after all, has already led to Putin.
I think that’s more up to the Russian people than anyone in the west. Russians like strong men, it’s a weakness in their society. Everyone outside Russia wanted it to continue to be a democracy, Russia even had a brief association with NATO while it was. But Yeltsin drank too much (alcoholism being another weakness in Russian society) and that allowed a guy like Putin to make himself a Czar.
This is some of the dumbest shit ive read on here. Shocked you aren’t from .world
Russians like strong men, it’s a weakness in their society.
No, it’s not any more a Russian weakness than an American one, even less than a Japanese or a Chinese one.
Especially unwise to judge Russians by American stereotypes of Russians.
Everyone outside Russia wanted it to continue to be a democracy
How’s that compatible with supporting Yeltsin in his 1993 coup and in stealing 1996 elections?
Russia even had a brief association with NATO while it was.
No it didn’t. Yeltsin wanted that, yes, and Putin wanted that too. Both wanted to be a big, scary country accepted to NATO and with NATO weaponry. Like Turkey, but with nukes. What both didn’t want is dropping the bullshit about spheres of influence and being an equal of the USA, apparently got told by NATO that beggars are not choosers. Also wanting an association with NATO has plainly nothing to do with being a democracy or not.
But Yeltsin drank too much (alcoholism being another weakness in Russian society) and that allowed a guy like Putin to make himself a Czar.
I think you skipped the part where I was educating you that Yeltsin made himself Czar in 1993 and just passed it on to Putin.
I don’t really care that it breaks your narrative. Putin is a natural continuation of the western-supported and consulted regime in Russia installed in 1993. That Yeltsin presented himself as some liberator and Putin presented himself as ex Soviet intelligence are campaign pictures that mean nothing. All the trusted people around Putin are the same that Yeltsin had even before 1991. Including Putin himself.
Alcoholism is not a bigger weakness in the Russian society than in British ones or in Sweden or in Finland.
No, it’s not any more a Russian weakness than an American one, even less than a Japanese or a Chinese one.
Russians don’t have the “fuck the feds” grassroots rebelliousness of Americans, they don’t have a honour/respectability culture like the Japanese not to mention that Russians have basically no civil society while Japan (as a stem family culture) has a very strong one, and unlike the Chinese Russians are fatalist AF, don’t really have expectations about things becoming better for them. If the CCP had started this shit they would’ve lost the mandate of heaven quite a while ago.
But I agree, it’s not so much a strong man fetish. It’s an acceptance of might makes right combined with social acceptance of tyrannical behaviour on the individual level and, consequently, high distrust among individuals stopping the formation of a civil society.
Russian society hasn’t fundamentally changed since the days of the Tsars, they’ve gone through various paint-coats while sticking to the same overarching organisational structure: Central power delegates exploitation of people, the environment etc to viceroys in exchange for loyalty, meanwhile acquisition of new colonial subjects is ongoing as, being built on terror, the imperial core can never feel safe and needs to bash something to distract itself from its vulnerability.
Russians don’t have the “fuck the feds” grassroots rebelliousness of Americans, they don’t have a honour/respectability culture like the Japanese not to mention that Russians have basically no civil society while Japan (as a stem family culture) has a very strong one, and unlike the Chinese Russians are fatalist AF, don’t really have expectations about things becoming better for them. If the CCP had started this shit they would’ve lost the mandate of heaven quite a while ago.
All wrong.
There’s just one thing that Russians really lack - understanding of the importance of truth. It would seem the Orwellian amorphousness of mind is a legacy Russians have carried from the USSR, except one can see signs of it all over the Russian literature school course. Russians really love “grey morality”, ambiguity and nihilism.
For an American or a German it takes belief in a propaganda device to follow it. For a Russian - just acceptance that it’s likelier to be better in some way.
It’s an acceptance of might makes right combined with social acceptance of tyrannical behaviour on the individual level and, consequently, high distrust among individuals stopping the formation of a civil society.
No. Just the belief that there’s some deeper grey wisdom, a secret, and you’d be an idiot to just give yourself to some specific idea.
A whole country of cynics thinking they know better. Thus extremely skeptical about any initiative.
But that might not be wrong course of action too, Westerners don’t seem to comprehend that today’s Russia is not USSR, and that solving the problem of making Russians, say, rebel en masse is not going to achieve much. That rebellion will be predicted, easily disrupted and the people involved will regret they were born. It’s probably perpetually happening - new and new people who’d eventually have done something finding yet another FSB trap and going to a secret jail silently before they would do anything.
Russian society hasn’t fundamentally changed since the days of the Tsars
It has and to the worse. Except, of course, back then the majority consisted of illiterate peasants.
Central power delegates exploitation of people, the environment etc to viceroys in exchange for loyalty, meanwhile acquisition of new colonial subjects is ongoing as, being built on terror, the imperial core can never feel safe and needs to bash something to distract itself from its vulnerability.
No. That’s not how central power functioned back then, and what happens now is a mafia group gratuitously using its vast human resources to just have fun. Their fun in this case is conquering Ukraine to feel themselves more powerful. Only it doesn’t quite work out, but I think the feeling of being able to mobilize people and send them to the grinder is good enough.
There’s just one thing that Russians really lack - understanding of the importance of truth.
Now that is a universal human trait.
For an American or a German it takes belief in a propaganda device to follow it. For a Russian - just acceptance that it’s likelier to be better in some way.
Americans don’t believe in, whatnot, manifest destiny, their exceptionalism, they live it. Germans certainly don’t believe in classism, yet we’re living it. Generally speaking: The stuff that people are actually following is not found on the propaganda level, but on a level below that, on a cultural carrier wave so to speak. Why propagandise something that people are doing, anyway? Doesn’t make sense.
No. Just the belief that there’s some deeper grey wisdom, a secret, and you’d be an idiot to just give yourself to some specific idea.
That’s just bug-standard metamodernism collapsed into fascism, that is, regressed into modernism. Just to explains terms: Modernism is the age of grand ideas, “one true path to absolve humankind”, while postmodernism is the “yo all that stuff is BS anyway we don’t know shit”. You see those forces oscillating throughout history, metamodernism means their co-existence.
That belief might very well what people are telling themselves, but it’s a shallow analysis. The “deeper grey wisdom” (interesting that you used “grey” btw, “it must be ancient” – why?) is Snokhachestvo, and not the practice itself but the cultural attitudes that enable(d) it. Russia made some progress overcoming that shit, e.g. normalising nuclear families instead of communal ones (the one crucial achievement of the USSR), but the underlying cultural beliefs stay uninterrogated, able to perpetuate themselves. Thus men do to their sons what their fathers did to them, think that’s what being a man is all about, and if you don’t use whatever power and might you have to be cruel, you’re obviously gay. Like Europe.
That is what I meant with “a belief in might makes right”.
A whole country of cynics thinking they know better.
Germany has 80 million national football team trainers. There seems to be a pattern here: Declaring universal human traits as specifically Russian. Those traits are true, no doubt, but they’re not unique.
That’s not how central power functioned back then, and what happens now is a mafia group gratuitously using its vast human resources to just have fun.
It didn’t? The Tsar and the viceroys, plundering the country and living the good life. The General Secretariat or even Secretary and the Nomenklatura, plundering the country and living the good life. “Everyone is equal, but some are more equal than others”. In either case, highly authoritarian societies, with varying levels of totalitarianism. Such a setup requires cruelty and ruthlessness, and there’s no shortage of either because, according to Russian culture throughout the ages, good fathers make sure that their sons are strong men by raping the son’s wife. Metaphorically speaking, at least: The “sons” might be subordinate soldiers, and the “wife” their pay checks and materiel. In the position of son, you’re just expected to take it, otherwise you’re weak, and the “father” will make sure that’s an even worse fate. The Siloviki do indeed want to free Ukrainians – so they bomb cities. Free them from their “European gayness”, that is. Such is the perversity of the Russian psyche.
Or, differently put: You sure you’re looking at the water you’re swimming in? I’m not Russian, I only lived there, and I was able to see the water. Swimming feels quite a bit different in Russia than it does virtually everywhere else.
Snokhachestvo and the cultural approaches similar to it are prevalent in those people who are Russia’s elite now, but generally seem very rare as far as I can see.
And that stuff about Europe and homosexuality seems for me a kind of “the hungry doesn’t understand the full”, more of jokes and separation than of really thinking that’s true. It’s just that there are people outside the prison and inside it, and those inside can’t afford to behave freely. It’s almost envy, except without even negative feelings. More like alienation - “they live so much easier that for them homosexuality is a real concern”.
Also there’s the criminal culture homosexuality, as a marker of status in the criminal hierarchy, which is demonstrably non-consensual, and one can see a psychological parallel between living freely in general inside a prison and being gay in a place where people get raped. A nonsensically careless behavior, something like that. And being nonsensically careless is weak.
The Tsar and the viceroys, plundering the country and living the good life.
They followed their own laws. If a law was too cumbersome to make, they didn’t. It was an absolute monarchy, but if you compare today’s Russia’s judicial system to the imperial one - the latter seems very humane. By stats, by procedures, by stories of people who witnessed it.
and there’s no shortage of either because, according to Russian culture throughout the ages, good fathers make sure that their sons are strong men by raping the son’s wife
The kind of peasant communes and huge families where such things happened wasn’t actually natural. It was becoming the more common, the more people were becoming personal serfs. That is, there was that transition during Catherine where state serfs (which in practice meant almost a free man) were given to nobles en masse, she considered that a better arrangement. Sort of a privatization.
In the position of son, you’re just expected to take it, otherwise you’re weak, and the “father” will make sure that’s an even worse fate.
Nah, not that. If we make this comparison, for them it’s the father’s right, and you are subordinate. It’s not about fear of punishment, it’s about enduring for endurance’s sake. Almost morality.
The Siloviki do indeed want to free Ukrainians – so they bomb cities.
No, they don’t. They want to kill and loot and subjugate.
People who you are maybe looking for here are not those who try to somehow explain the state’s justifications for this war. It’s those who think that this has to be finished anyway regardless of whether the war should have been started.
Free them from their “European gayness”, that is. Such is the perversity of the Russian psyche.
I haven’t met such real people. OK, to be honest, probably I didn’t realize but I have.
The point is - almost nobody really thinks that about gayness and what not, but everybody thinks it’s smarter to play along, that’s what I meant by the amorphousness of mind of Russians.
Or, differently put: You sure you’re looking at the water you’re swimming in? I’m not Russian, I only lived there, and I was able to see the water. Swimming feels quite a bit different in Russia than it does virtually everywhere else.
It does, but it’s more of a culture of virtuous suffering, like doing your work the hard way instead of loosening up a bit and doing it better, but with less “honest labor” or something. And lies. The virtuous suffering thing is often stupid, but sometimes a strength. The lies however are usually stupid, yet Russians somehow always start with lies and then maybe work it up to saying the truth.
Gorbachev was the only rational guy they had during that period. He could have had a chance to do something if the West had supported him.
Most of all the Russians simply can’t stomach a reality where they’re not a feared global superpower, to such a degree that they’d rather shoot themselves in the foot and be a shithole rather than just a regular better functioning nation
Americans are going to have to make the same choice in the next few years. I hope they don’t make the same mistake.
In some ways, yes. American soft power and trust in the country just got fully tanked, but I see it as unrealistic that the country won’t still be a superpower trying to insert itself into everything… it just won’t have a lot of allies. But then again they control all of social media (minus Tiktok) so I’ll bet they’ll sway some assbrains around the world anyway, like with the election in Poland.
The tech and military industries in USA are too powerful that it’ll lose all of its relevance. Of course, the people will live increasingly worse lives - I just hope it’ll at least hit Republicans the worst
In some ways, yes. American soft power and trust in the country just got fully tanked, but I see it as unrealistic that the country won’t still be a superpower trying to insert itself into everything… it just won’t have a lot of allies. But then again they control all of social media (minus Tiktok) so I’ll bet they’ll sway some assbrains around the world anyway, like with the election in Poland.
The tech and military industries in USA are too powerful that it’ll lose all of its relevance. Of course, the people will live increasingly worse lives - I just hope it’ll at least hit Republicans the worst
Kinda sounds like you are already in denial about it yet you say it hasn’t happened yet :P
Pre-emptive denial?
I’m from one of the countries that the US has consistently threatened and badmouthed. Conceptually, the US is dead to me. I have no doubt that the people - and even our governments - no longer view the US as allies. But the country is too rich and powerful not to be an important factor globally no matter how many bridges they burn during this authoritarian and regarded spell
The “keeping it weak” approach, after all, has already led to Putin.
No one kept Russia weak when Soviet Union collapsed. Yeltsin brought a lot of democractic traits into Russia and it was heavily leaning towards west on multiple areas. Should they kept going on that direction they’d be a global superpower on pretty much all fronts by now, surpassing US and even China.
But they had also pretty big internal problems and a ton of people who desired old soviet times and whatever, so we ended up with what we have today. Wikipedia has way more info and links to study it further.
Yeltsin brought a lot of democractic traits into Russia
No. The democratic mechanisms started working a bit earlier than the USSR stopped existing.
People like Sakharov, Galina Starovoitova, have your heard of such names?
The democratic reforms happened before USSR’s collapse.
Yeltsin used that to come to power in 1991, and then kicked the ladder in 1993, and in 1999 named Putin as the next president on television. Oh, of course Putin “won” an election after that.
And that process was actively supported by western governments, especially in 1996, with the justification that an honest democracy in Russia will lead to scary-scary communists coming back to power.
Should they kept going on that direction they’d be a global superpower on pretty much all fronts by now, surpassing US and even China.
Yeltsin was a dying alcoholic living uncritically and without shame by the motto “to my friends everything, to everyone else the law”. They have kept going on that exact direction. That’s the bloody point.
Yeltsin usurped power in 1993. If that didn’t happen and the conflict between Yeltsin and the parliament was resolved peacefully and legally (by having snap parliament and presidential elections simultaneously, so - replacing both sides of the conflict, in other words, Yeltsin would have to back the democratic claims with the democratic action of leaving the post ; that was the constitutional court’s decision), then maybe. But instead Yeltsin used tanks to resolve the dispute.
Anyway, no, even if 1993 conflict would end differently, I think surpassing Germany is possible.
Soviet Union was an interesting part of the planet, the older generation from there can “know” and teach you all the right things, but not live by them. Talk about bravery and honor, and very correctly, but act dishonorably and be completely blind to that, talk about science and logic and critical mind and very correctly, but go to fortunetellers and believe in energies. Talk about principle, but not follow it. Never use the “thought experiment” tool freely. And so on.
They needed lots of time to fix that - through pain. It’s not been 40 years yet, if we take biblical timespans. Maybe in year 2031 Russia will finally be ready.
But they had also pretty big internal problems and a ton of people who desired old soviet times and whatever, so we ended up with what we have today. Wikipedia has way more info and links to study it further.
In 1991 nobody desired “old times” back. People saw how it all was degrading until falling apart. Don’t you give me Wikipedia links, lol. Something should have happened for a lot of people to wish a “restoration”, don’t you think so? Like what I’ve described. And that “restoration” was provided by the same people, Yeltsin’s people, with the figure of Putin and his image of a “former Soviet intelligence operative”.
I appreciate this response. It’s informative, and I learned a lot. Thank you for taking the time to post.
How would Russia have surpassed the US and China? What did they have that would have contributed to that superiority? I realize that is a massive question, but to a a casual observer, that seems curious.
Heys Boris “Bomb the parliment” Yeltsin super democratic. as we all know Democracy is when you disreguard a vote, then when the parliment makes you mad you bomb it into submission, all brought to you by pizza hut
Our operation Spider’s Web… even though they [the Russians – ed.] are furious, they understand everything – that if there are cases like the one involving 20,000 rockets [that the US had planned to send to Ukraine but redirected to the Middle East – ed.], then we’ll rely on our own strength… We don’t want the war to continue, but we’ll fight for ourselves if that is the only way out.
We’re very close. We need strong support from the United States. The US needs unity with Europe and still needs to put pressure on Putin. He doesn’t want to end the war, but he can end the war under pressure from partners. In my opinion, that gives us a chance. And this doesn’t sound pessimistic at all – I’m talking about reality."
If US support is the only thing that can cause Ukraine to win, then it’s pretty certain with our current leadership that it won’t happen.
The thing that is so impressive about Ukraine and the coalition it has formed is that they actually don’t need the US to directly be an ally to win this war. They should have not had to demonstrate this capacity, but the capacity has been thoroughly demonstrated.
Keep up the good work. Russia must fail.
For Putin, it’s a matter of political survival.
I’m going to go with ‘survival’ survival for Putin.
Those two are the same for him at this point
The Russian wartime economy would, and will, utterly collapse.
I agree with some commentators cleverer than me, the current state of the war economy is so extreme that it’ll be crippled by both continued war and also by peace.
The longer it goes on the worse the resolution will be
That is when the role of the US really comes in. Putin eyes the nuclear button and Americans have to go “sit down, you’re not doing anything”. But Trump will go “let’s talk”.
