Leaving the EU has reduced Britain’s GDP by up to 8pc, according to a devastating US study

The latest such assessment comes in the form of a paper from the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). This concludes that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by 6pc to 8pc, far more than most previous estimates.

Investment is worse off by between 12pc and 18pc, employment by between 3pc and 4pc, and productivity also by between 3pc and 4pc. There have been few more devastating assessments than this.

  • rayyy@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    15
    ·
    8 hours ago

    Brexit AND the two elections of the orange felon/pedophile have been unmitigated successes for Putin.

  • shapeofthings@piefed.ca
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    17
    ·
    9 hours ago

    Russian propaganda troll farms amplified British and American racism and xenophobia, leading both countries populations to make utterly disastrous decisions, voting for Brexit and Trump respectively. Putin’s small investment in targeted propaganda is resulting in massive economic and rotational damage to both countries.

  • fodor@lemmy.zip
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    31
    ·
    18 hours ago

    Nobody wants to talk about it? … That’s not true. People who pushed it through don’t want to talk about it, and neither do their allies. Everyone else would like to see accountability, right? Get rid of those shady bastards who push nationalism by pretending it’s good economics.

  • CircaV@lemmy.ca
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    26
    ·
    20 hours ago

    I could have told the UK that before they left the EU. But they listened to billionaires Rees-Mogg, Truss and the like and voted for something that enriched the aristocrats and oligarchs and shafted the average person. You made your made UK. 🤷🤷‍♀️🤷‍♂️

    • explodicle@sh.itjust.works
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      15
      ·
      22 hours ago

      IMHO part of the problem was that economics was more a branch of philosophy than a science until the 1970s, but the public never got the memo when this changed.

      So we get doofuses who act like their economics claims are purely a matter of opinion, not falsifiable hypotheses. Try arguing for a UBI and watch how many chalkboard economists tell you what they imagine would happen, completely ignoring all experimental results.

      • fodor@lemmy.zip
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        12
        ·
        18 hours ago

        It turns out economics is still more hand wavy than substantive science. Economists like to pretend otherwise, but don’t let them fool you. After all, what kind of scientific field would conflate “the economy” with “rich people’s yachts” and just … keep on doing that … even when exposed?

        • explodicle@sh.itjust.works
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          6
          ·
          17 hours ago

          I agree that conflating a healthy economy with stock market growth is bogus. This misconception predates the 1970s, and is the same sort of chalkboard economics I’m talking about.

          The chalkboard:

          The results:

          That doesn’t mean that economics as a whole is bullshit. It means that monetary policy in particular has been heavily propagandized. An economist who agrees with you will find themselves unable to obtain funding and ostracized. Just like Galileo was… But it was geocentrism - not all of astronomy - that was unscientific. Science is how you know if you’re a Galileo or just a crank.

          You don’t use science to show that you’re right, you use science to become right.

          Randall Munroe

          IMHO the mask simply came off in 2008 when they bailed out the rich and not the poor. They’re pissing on our legs and telling us it’s raining. As more and more people are forced into poverty while the stock market soars, more of us are rightfully asking these questions. So what are we gonna do about it? Do you trust your savings to someone who insists that the economy is rich people’s yachts?

          • squaresinger@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            2
            ·
            8 hours ago

            IMHO the mask simply came off in 2008 when they bailed out the rich and not the poor. They’re pissing on our legs and telling us it’s raining. As more and more people are forced into poverty while the stock market soars, more of us are rightfully asking these questions. So what are we gonna do about it? Do you trust your savings to someone who insists that the economy is rich people’s yachts?

            It’s all just a matter of goals. Is economics there to help the poor, the middle class or the rich? Depending on your answer, it’s either an absolute failure or an unmitigated success.

            And considering the golden rule (“The one who has the gold makes the rules”), it’s quite clear what’s happening there. All of the economics technobabble is only there to distract and justify, not to actually make sense.

          • qevlarr@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            3
            ·
            9 hours ago

            IMHO the mask simply came off in 2008 when they bailed out the rich and not the poor.

            Watch them bail out AI soon. The inmates are running the asylum

            • explodicle@sh.itjust.works
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              1
              ·
              7 hours ago

              No doubt.

              In 2008, the bailout supporters denied that it was a moral hazard.

              In 2020, it became “many” times. Nothing ever happens only twice.

  • manxu@piefed.social
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    49
    ·
    1 day ago

    I think the worst part of Brexit is not that it reduced UK GDP by a fixed amount, but that the damage is getting worse with time. Brits could probably have lived with a temporary setback followed by faster growth, but it’s becoming pretty evident that the UK has been permanently damaged and growth will lag peer economies’ for the foreseeable future.

    And yet, Reform UK is looking pretty good in the polls. Make that make sense, they were the most ardent proponents of Brexit.

    • MrScottyTay@sh.itjust.works
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      29
      ·
      23 hours ago

      Because the majority that voted Brexit and still believe in it were never in it for the economics, at least not the kind backed by evidence, because in their minds the economy will get better for the average working man once all of the “foreigners” are no longer here.

      And because of how loud this minority are, they’ve gotten the more gullible of the population that don’t know any better to think that it’s true, because they’ve heard it from John, Barry, Gaz and that guy on TV.

    • mirshafie@europe.pub
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      8
      ·
      21 hours ago

      They were hoping to benefit from a stronger relationship to the USA, and being the nexus between the USA and the EU. But the USA is just shitting on all of its supposed friends, and the EU is slowly but surely withdrawing from the Atlantic partnership.

  • Devolution@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    105
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    edit-2
    1 day ago

    Brexit is an example of what happens when Conservatives are allowed out of the basement and allowed to dictate national policy.

    • IronBird@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      12
      ·
      24 hours ago

      haven’t “conservatives” (i use “” because they never conserve anything) ruled britisn for like…the last 50 or so years?

      • palordrolap@fedia.io
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        20
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        23 hours ago

        Well, there was a period in the 90s through to the early 2000s where we had a centre-left party (New Labour) running the show and mostly improving things, but then 9/11 and the Iraq war happened and the country went scurrying back to the Conservatives again.

        The conspiracy nut that lives in my brain is convinced Putin’s taking control of Russia in 2000 has everything to do with every single bit of the above after “but then”.

        We currently have New Labour (now just “Labour”) in charge again, but politically they smell an awful lot like the pre-Thatcherite Conservatives.

        • IronBird@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          1
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          23 hours ago

          iirc putin was helped into power by the US, for promising to hunt down any remaining communists (similar story to literally every regime change the US has backed the last…50-70+ years?).

      • Devolution@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        3
        ·
        22 hours ago

        And isn’t that why the UK is the shittiest Western European country compared to its neighbors?

    • lazynooblet@lazysoci.al
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      3
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      23 hours ago

      UK conservatives at the time were split regarding Brexit. They put the vote out to the public and the conservative party campaigned to stay possibly naively expecting the vote to be in their favour.

      • Devolution@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        11
        ·
        edit-2
        21 hours ago

        They were fucking knobs who were upset England had too many brown people and slavs. Don’t justify the pasty lazy fucks.

  • Augustiner@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    67
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    1 day ago

    Interesting to read this in the telegraph. If I recall correctly they were pro leave during the campaign leading up to the referendum.

    • The Octonaut@mander.xyz
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      8
      ·
      23 hours ago

      They are pro-Tory. The Tories greatest threat right now is being eaten alive by the Reform party. Doesn’t matter if the Telegraph have to take a hit, blaming Farage not the Tories for the economy is worth it.

    • IninewCrow@lemmy.ca
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      16
      arrow-down
      4
      ·
      1 day ago

      Because they report the news and inform the public … their content just tends to have a four or five year lag compared to reality.

      • LuckingFurker (Any/All)@lemmy.blahaj.zone
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        36
        ·
        1 day ago

        It’s the Torygraph, they deal lightly at best with news and informing the public, which is what makes it very surprising. If they’re reporting it then reality is even worse

    • SaraTonin@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      2
      ·
      1 day ago

      Yeah, that’s the significant thing for me here. Not what’s being said, but which paper is saying it.