I never said the US doesn’t benefit from the war, though they wouldn’t if Russia’s invasion went to plan. Russia thought they could walk in and take over. They clearly thought they could take it all and would gain a lot from owning it; a port in the black sea and the breadbasket of Europe.
Cui bono? That’s more complicated than just “who’s benefitting now.”
Also, again, Putin wanted to cement a legacy. He benefits most if they were successful.
However, now basically everyone except Russia gains from it. China, North Korea, and Iran get to have Russia owe them a lot (We’ll see how that debt is repaid, though I know there’s some particular land China at least wants, but also they love their soft power). Europe gets a significantly weaker Russia threatening them. The US gets to further extend its power. A whole lot of nations get to test weapons (and secretly gain experience) with a new type of warfare.
We can’t look at the past with the understanding we have now and think they knew this would happen though. They made it clear they expected an easy victory.
Of course, Ukraine loses most. Indepted, lost territory and huge amount of death.
China owes Russia a lot because China is the ultimate objective. Russia could fold, have new elections and join Nato.
North Korea wins big, mostly for Russia stopping participation in sanctions. An advantage for Russia.
‘Europe’, or rather Germany loses third most because all profits from industrial products and benefits from cheap energy moves to China. Russia wasn’t threatening, an economic union suggested by Putin was possible.
US wins the most, by far. The US feels threatened by the Eurasian Union even though the EU is deeply linked with the US. Many major advisers argued against Nato expansion and they still did it. What’s their offer to Germany so that Germany accepted the Nato and EU expansion to Ukraine?
We can’t look at the past with the understanding we have now and think they knew this would happen though. They made it clear they expected an easy victory.
They told their soldiers about the easy victory.
Do you think they didn’t know about the Ukraine fortifications built since 2014? Have you seen their faces when they announced the ‘operation’? They had to take Grozny. Why should Kyiv fall in 3 days?
Have you looked at the book? This conflict is in the making for a long time. Putin tried to win over Germany with cheap gas to become part of the West and avoid the conflict but Merkel betrayed him and just took the gas without changing the original goals.
We can’t look at the past with the understanding we have now and think they knew this would happen though. They made it clear they expected an easy victory.
They told their soldiers about the easy victory.
Do you think they didn’t know about the Ukraine fortifications built since 2014? Have you seen their faces when they announced the ‘operation’? They had to take Grozny. Why should Kyiv fall in 3 days?
You don’t send your best troops into a position they can’t get out of if you don’t expect results. Sure, after the collapse of the government there’s still going to be some fighting, but they thought they could take out the government in one swift blow.
Have you looked at the book? This conflict is in the making for a long time. Putin tried to win over Germany with cheap gas to become part of the West and avoid the conflict but Merkel betrayed him and just took the gas without changing the original goals.
Yes, it’s been coming for a long time. Obviously. If it wasn’t Ukraine it’d be something else. Russia was always going to push something to the point where other nations wouldn’t let them anymore. It’s not like Ukraine is the first sovereign nation they’ve invaded. It also wouldn’t have been the last. Germany has not “taken” their gas though. They are still purchasing it, which is dumb because it increases they amount the need to spend in Ukraine, but it is what it is. If only they hadn’t shut down those nuclear reactors a few years ago…
I never said the US doesn’t benefit from the war, though they wouldn’t if Russia’s invasion went to plan. Russia thought they could walk in and take over. They clearly thought they could take it all and would gain a lot from owning it; a port in the black sea and the breadbasket of Europe.
Cui bono? That’s more complicated than just “who’s benefitting now.”
Also, again, Putin wanted to cement a legacy. He benefits most if they were successful.
However, now basically everyone except Russia gains from it. China, North Korea, and Iran get to have Russia owe them a lot (We’ll see how that debt is repaid, though I know there’s some particular land China at least wants, but also they love their soft power). Europe gets a significantly weaker Russia threatening them. The US gets to further extend its power. A whole lot of nations get to test weapons (and secretly gain experience) with a new type of warfare.
We can’t look at the past with the understanding we have now and think they knew this would happen though. They made it clear they expected an easy victory.
Russia loses second most, with not much to win. 30% more wheat production is not a reason for war.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wheat_production
Of course, Ukraine loses most. Indepted, lost territory and huge amount of death.
China owes Russia a lot because China is the ultimate objective. Russia could fold, have new elections and join Nato.
North Korea wins big, mostly for Russia stopping participation in sanctions. An advantage for Russia.
‘Europe’, or rather Germany loses third most because all profits from industrial products and benefits from cheap energy moves to China. Russia wasn’t threatening, an economic union suggested by Putin was possible.
US wins the most, by far. The US feels threatened by the Eurasian Union even though the EU is deeply linked with the US. Many major advisers argued against Nato expansion and they still did it. What’s their offer to Germany so that Germany accepted the Nato and EU expansion to Ukraine?
They told their soldiers about the easy victory.
Do you think they didn’t know about the Ukraine fortifications built since 2014? Have you seen their faces when they announced the ‘operation’? They had to take Grozny. Why should Kyiv fall in 3 days?
Have you looked at the book? This conflict is in the making for a long time. Putin tried to win over Germany with cheap gas to become part of the West and avoid the conflict but Merkel betrayed him and just took the gas without changing the original goals.
You don’t send your best troops into a position they can’t get out of if you don’t expect results. Sure, after the collapse of the government there’s still going to be some fighting, but they thought they could take out the government in one swift blow.
Yes, it’s been coming for a long time. Obviously. If it wasn’t Ukraine it’d be something else. Russia was always going to push something to the point where other nations wouldn’t let them anymore. It’s not like Ukraine is the first sovereign nation they’ve invaded. It also wouldn’t have been the last. Germany has not “taken” their gas though. They are still purchasing it, which is dumb because it increases they amount the need to spend in Ukraine, but it is what it is. If only they hadn’t shut down those nuclear reactors a few years ago…