The White House said Friday that Russia’s offensive in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region has stalled and is unlikely to advance any further. John Kirby, the White House national sec…
He won’t and probably not. The only way he will order a nuclear strike is if Russia is about to be dissolved or if he is about to be overthrown. Unless Russians financial situation gets a LOT worse, there is no risk of Russia dissolving, as Ukraine is not seeking to invade. Putin will not be overthrown unless he dramatically steps up conscription and starts targeting oligarchs families as conscription possibilities. He knows that to do so would be suicide.
In either scenario, once it has reached that point Putin will have pissed off literally every single person that matters and they would have no reason to listen to him.
Plus, the more the world bends to that threat, the more every other country will pursue nuclear weapons. Giving too wide a berth to Russia is more dangerous for nuclear proliferation than bowing to their threats.
Regarding Ukraine not seeking to invade Russia. Almost NOBODY seeks to invade Russia, because Russia has nothing that anyone wants that can’t be obtained much more easily and cheaply by simply buying it. Furthermore, were one to invade Russia, you then become responsible for what happens in the epitome of shithole state.
If Russia were to strike Ukraine with a nuclear bomb, first and foremost that puts every nation on a knife’s edge globally… someone else with an itchy trigger finger could launch against Russia in the confusing hours afterwards. Next up, the PRC and India would likely abandoned Russia as waves of condemnation would flood the global media. Finally, the whole goal of the war is to take Ukraine, not to make it uninhabitable… why nuke what you want to own?
FYI the United States has always maintained a first-strike policy as official nuclear doctrine. There is no language restricting nuclear weapons to just nuclear retaliation.
There’s a lot of wealthy oligarchs living in luxury who wouldn’t want their lifestyles threatened/ended by nuclear war. Similarly, Putins chain of command can’t be poor and dumb. They also have comparable luxury and lifestyles, and are smart enough to understand that nuclear war most probably would end everything they have. Putin himself is an umpteen billionaire.
Just sayin’, these people that control the nukes have the most to lose if they use 'em.
As much as Putin is self-centered, he does have grandchildren and he probably cares about a legacy, which makes me a little more assured that he won’t do something that insane.
The only real question left in this war is: if Putin orders a nuclear strike, will he be obeyed?
He won’t and probably not. The only way he will order a nuclear strike is if Russia is about to be dissolved or if he is about to be overthrown. Unless Russians financial situation gets a LOT worse, there is no risk of Russia dissolving, as Ukraine is not seeking to invade. Putin will not be overthrown unless he dramatically steps up conscription and starts targeting oligarchs families as conscription possibilities. He knows that to do so would be suicide.
In either scenario, once it has reached that point Putin will have pissed off literally every single person that matters and they would have no reason to listen to him.
Plus, the more the world bends to that threat, the more every other country will pursue nuclear weapons. Giving too wide a berth to Russia is more dangerous for nuclear proliferation than bowing to their threats.
Regarding Ukraine not seeking to invade Russia. Almost NOBODY seeks to invade Russia, because Russia has nothing that anyone wants that can’t be obtained much more easily and cheaply by simply buying it. Furthermore, were one to invade Russia, you then become responsible for what happens in the epitome of shithole state.
One follow up question would be: are Russia’s nukes maintained well enough to be functional?
Sadly even if they’re not, it’s quantity over quality…just like the rest of the whole military there.
Unlikely. There’s kind of only two hard-and-fast rules for nuclear war:
If Russia were to strike Ukraine with a nuclear bomb, first and foremost that puts every nation on a knife’s edge globally… someone else with an itchy trigger finger could launch against Russia in the confusing hours afterwards. Next up, the PRC and India would likely abandoned Russia as waves of condemnation would flood the global media. Finally, the whole goal of the war is to take Ukraine, not to make it uninhabitable… why nuke what you want to own?
“if I can’t have it, no one can!”
smashes all the toys before going home
FYI the United States has always maintained a first-strike policy as official nuclear doctrine. There is no language restricting nuclear weapons to just nuclear retaliation.
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Spotlight/2022/NDS/NUCLEAR STRATEGY AND POLICY - NPR Factsheet.pdf
There’s a lot of wealthy oligarchs living in luxury who wouldn’t want their lifestyles threatened/ended by nuclear war. Similarly, Putins chain of command can’t be poor and dumb. They also have comparable luxury and lifestyles, and are smart enough to understand that nuclear war most probably would end everything they have. Putin himself is an umpteen billionaire.
Just sayin’, these people that control the nukes have the most to lose if they use 'em.
As much as Putin is self-centered, he does have grandchildren and he probably cares about a legacy, which makes me a little more assured that he won’t do something that insane.