Like I kept seeing bets raising on when will USA strike Iran and till 2 days before the strike most of the money was betting on 15 March for the first strike.
When the whole thing failed I was confused about the reason no one reported on this.
A lot of people lost money on this.
But more importantly, this counter the message that is currently being broadcasted everywhere and reported on by several news outlets, which is prediction markets are accurate for predicting events.
I think if there was more reports about prediction markets fails even news organisations themselves will be cautious and will not use the unreliable prediction markets data.
So, why is no one reporting on that?
It’s not that they report when someone “wins”
They report on huge bets made last minute on longshot odds.
If someone dropped 500k on war and lost, that would be newsworthy.
You seem to be operating under the assumption those are “smart bets” and not someone who knows the answer making easy money off of you and others who really are just guessing.