Everybody knows about the backstory, there was a civil war, KMT fled to Taiwan creating two Chinas sort of, maybe, neither recognises the other, whole thing. ROC (Taiwan) ended up transitioning from military rule to a multi-party democracy, while the PRC (mainland China) didn’t do that (they did reform economically, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and all that, but still a one-party state, not a multi-party democracy). The status quo right now is that Taiwan is in the grey area of statehood where they function pretty much independently but aren’t properly recognised, and both sides of the strait are feeling pretty tense right now.
Taiwan’s stance on the issue is that they would like to remain politically and economically independent of mainland China, retaining their multi-party democracy, political connections to its allies, economic trade connections, etc. Also, a majority of the people in Taiwan do not support reunification with China.
China’s stance on the issue is that Taiwan should be reunified with the mainland at all costs, ideally peacefully, but war is not ruled out. They argue that Taiwan was unfairly separated from the mainland by imperial powers in their “century of humiliation”. Strategically, taking Taiwan would be beneficial to China as they would have better control of the sea.
Is it even possible for both sides to agree to a peaceful solution? Personally, I can only see two ways this could go about that has the consent of both parties. One, a reformist leader takes power in the mainland and gives up on Taiwan, and the two exist as separate independent nations. Or two, the mainland gets a super-reformist leader that transitions the mainland to a multi-party democracy, and maybe then reunification could be on the table, with Taiwan keeping an autonomous status given the large cultural difference (similar to Hong Kong or Macau’s current status). Both options are, unfortunately, very unlikely to occur in the near future.
A third option (?) would be a pseudo-unification, where Taiwan becomes a recognised country, but there can be free movement of people between the mainland and Taiwan, free trade, that sort of stuff (sort of like the EU? Maybe?). Not sure if the PRC would accept that.
What are your thoughts on a peaceful solution to the crisis that both sides could agree on?
edit: Damn there are crazies in both ends of the arguments. I really don’t think giving Taiwan nukes would help solve the problem.
I think the current best solution, looking at the more reasonable and realistic comments, seems to be to maintain the status quo, at least until both sides of the strait are able to come into some sort of agreement (which seems to be worlds away right now given their current very opposing stances on the issue)
Since you’re Chinese American, I have a question that’s doubly offensive but I’m actually interested in hearing your opinion. Should borders the size of China and the U.S. continue to exist at all? IMO one president or central government can’t legitimately represent hundreds of millions of people.
So your quesrion is: “Should large countries exist?”
I mean honestly idk…
I hope humanity one day grows past tribalism and we just have one big “European Union” type of thing and worldwide Schengen area and there be no wars.
But unfortunately humans are tribalistic and eventually people are gonna wanna form a bloc, whether it be military alliances like NATO, or confederations like European Union (btw I’m curious what happens if an EU country that isn’t in NATO gets invaded… EU is not a millitary alliance so it’d be very weird…) or more commonly, people form countries.
That’s just human tribalism.
If mainland China democratizes, then I could see somewhat of a “bloc” being formed between mainland China, HK, Taiwan… as for Tibet and Xinjiang… I have no idea, their culture seems very distinct, I mean they have a whole separate writing system whereas mainland, HK, Taiwan all use the same writing system and have some of the sameholidays (Lunar New Year for example).
Eventually there could be an entire “bloc” in Asia.
Like I really don’t like the idea of China being divided into separate provinces without a common military front… and that’s not because of ancestry reasons, like for example I do not have any European Ancestry and never been to Europe, but also don’t like European Union and NATO getting broken up for the same reasons… it feels weak to get separated… too much chaos, Russia could invade any time. I mean even China literally got threatened by Russia’s predecessor, the USSR. (see: “Sino-Soviet Split”)
I think forming a “bloc” isn’t an inherent issue, I think the key point is avoid centralization of powers… federalism or confederalism would try to slow down ant autocratization attempts, but ultimately, people are people and there’s no democracy that will last forever if the people insists on electing wannabe dictators.
Directorial System like in Switzerland, maybe?
Or like EU where there is no one “President of EU”
Federalism or Confederalism (European Union)
Many thanks for such a detailed answer. I agree that blocs and federations are a good thing, and hope to see Asian, South-Eastern Asian, African, and South-American alliances similar to EU form around democratic values. I also hope that they don’t turn into rival fortresses with armed borders and migration restrictions between them. As someone from former USSR (Ukraine), I’m quite sure that Russia on its own, without Chinese government assistance, especially technologic, wouldn’t at their current economic state be able to wage war and suppress internal movements to democratize and/or truly federalize (in the North, particularly); but I read, admittedly not extensively, about Chinese history and recognize how dangerous it is not to have strong allies when empires are nearby - without strong allies, it’s a must to have mostly autarkic production and strength in numbers.