Summary
Trump had to reverse his aggressive tariff rhetoric after CEOs from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot warned of empty shelves and higher prices due to supply chain disruptions.
Investors reacted negatively to his threats against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, prompting a market sell-off.
Trump backtracked, expressing optimism on a China trade deal and now denying plans to fire Powell.
Global markets remain volatile, and the IMF cited Trump’s trade war as a “major negative shock” to global growth.
The whole thing is a giveaway for China to step into America’s role on the world stage. I don’t think that can be undone at this point. It’s obvious that the US is not a stable, rational trade negotiator. Who wants to have their currency reserves under a country like that?
That depends on how comprehensively we root out Trump, those behind him, and all their works. It’s not going to be easy, we’re going to need to strip this ramshackle structure down to the joists, after having tented it for termites.
I don’t think that’s possible. Not to the degree that would rebuild trust in a reserve currency. Once that money starts moving to something else, it’s gone. There would need to be a big incentive to come back, and it’s not clear what that would be.
The change would have to happen before any major moves happen. But then, just the fact that US policy is flip flopping so quickly is itself reason to mistrust it as a reserve currency. How do you know it won’t flip right back?