The high point of Taiwanese separatism was in 2019 when Tsai Ing-wen, despite being unpopular and almost getting primaried by the current Taiwanese president, was able to ride on the fears of the Hong Kong protests to win the presidency in 2020. After that, separatists have eaten nothing but L’s since then.

1. They got BTFO in the 2022 local elections, topping it off with Chiang Kai-shek’s bastard great-grandson getting elected as mayor of Taipei. This also means he has presidential ambitions, so a funny outcome would be Taiwan having a third president from the Chiang family.

2. They ate shit in the 2024 legislative elections and don’t have a majority in the Yuan.

3. They got their president elected with a crappy plurality made worse by all the 16-17 year old TPP supporters who can’t vote because they’re too young, meaning his popularity is even weaker than it looks.

4. Taiwanese zoomers, basically the people who are of conscript age, are voting for TPP instead, which ruins the DPP’s plan of replacing the KMT through age demographic changes. Just because the KMT is going to be the party of irrelevant boomers doesn’t mean your party will get the zoomers.

5. The ROC military has openly displays signs of disloyalty including a retired general saying they should simply coup the DPP and various officers repeatedly getting bribed by the PRC to lay down their arms. It turns out accusing the KMT, of which the ROC military is politically, culturally, and historically aligned with, of selling out to the PRC in order to win votes for your presidential election has far-reaching consequences.

6. The combination of the Taiwanese economy stagnating and the dumpster fire with Foxcomm attempting to build a factory in Arizona is forcing Taiwanese business to push harder towards the status quo, where they can get favorable trade deals with the PRC.