Donald Trump’s indefinite shelving of the plan to bomb Iran’s bridges and power stations on Tuesday night is being widely described as leaving the conflict in limbo, but that is anything but the truth.
Pakistan insists the prospect of talks in Islamabad has not evaporated, and positive messages are still being exchanged, but in the meantime the site of kinetic activity has switched from land to sea.
Both sides are vying to prove they can enforce their blockade of the strait of Hormuz more effectively than the other. It has become a form of gunboat diplomacy brought to life in the most significant geopolitical waterway in the world.
Trump simply has no leverage in this situation, and if it wasn’t clear before, its in such stark relief now, I don’t think any analysts see an outcome from this situation other than complete control of the straight by Iran.
In a sense, the sanctions prepared Iran for this in a way that rest of the world has never had to even consider. Iran will be able to hold their breath under water, in this sense, for months, years, perhaps even decades longer than the rest of the world. The world will not be able to hold their collective breaths longer than Iran in this regard.
Likewise, because of the sanctions, the world has very little leverage over Iran that wasn’t already being used. Yes, this new naval blockade etc… But as the meme goes… Iran: First time?
The cargo tracking firm Vortexa has reported that at least 34 tankers linked to Iran have circumvented the US blockade since it began, with 19 exiting the Gulf and 15 entering from the Arabian Sea.
I don’t understand why this is happening. Is the US Navy somehow trying and failing to intercept these ships? (That would surprise me.) Or are they being allowed to pass deliberately?
