One could imagine a concise entry in a geopolitical dictionary: “United States (1944-2025): a global power and leader of the Western bloc, relying on the dollar, an unmatched economy, a peerless military and its influence in the name of liberal values.” These were the terms that defined American greatness for decades, despite episodic crises from the Vietnam War to those in Afghanistan and Iraq. American exceptionalism was never a reality, but simply invoking it served as a political horizon and a rallying banner.
With Donald Trump’s return to power and the major transformation he is driving, as highlighted at the Davos conference, some elements of that definition are still intact. The strength of the dollar, of the US domestic market, of the country’s capacity for innovation and of its military power all remain, despite the rise of China as a major rival. However, America has lost two essential components: its global influence, which was once partly ensured by the dismantled development agency USAID, and, above all, the trust inspired by its word.
The last element is crucial, as trust is a precious currency. Once squandered, it is hard to win back. It is the foundation of cooperation, of any productive diplomatic dialogue and of the exchange of confidential information between intelligence agencies. Trump holds it in contempt. He believes only in the coercive power of tariffs, in the pursuit of fossil fuels and rare minerals and in the intimidating superiority of the US economy and military might. There are no longer any true allies, as these partners are accused of having exploited American goodwill for too long and living at its expense. There are only rivals, and countries are either submissive or defiant.
The US no longer HAS Western allies.
People keep saying this. The European states keep bending over for American military and diplomatic services.
Until the EU can decouple from the western tech and finance sectors (don’t hold your breath), they’re chained to the US economy and exposed to US tariff threats. And until they kick out the myriad of military bases, they’re beholden to the Pentagon. Europeans talked about decoupling during Trump 1. They talked about it during Bush 43. They talked about it during Reagen, ffs.
The only country that’s ever demonstrated an ounce of seriousness has been France. Every other country seems more than willing to take the American coin and bend the knee. And for all the bluster, I’m still waiting to see the rest of Europe take the threat of American hegemony seriously. Last I checked, Greenland is queuing up to get more American military bases, which doesn’t look like decoupling to me.
Starmer (UK) seems to have at least one of Trump’s nuts in his mouth at all times.
Western
The strength of the dollar, of the US domestic market, of the country’s capacity for innovation and of its military power all remain,
All of these stengths were not innate to the US. They were because of the coalition of friendly countries who made it all possible. Global trade made the USD powerful. The world’s best and brightest made the US innovative and these pillars are cumbling.
Everyone now considers US tech and financials poison. Companies and governments are moving with all haste to de-americanify their tech stacks and de-dolarize their economies. Pension funds are dumping US debt because everybody know what the impact on its value will be under this regime.
They are attacking and deporting immigrants and becoming a country where talent doesn’t feel safe. It’s not a place to raise a family. I’ve met medical researchers and medical doctors who have moved recently to Canada because the see no future in the US.
When former allies corporations and governments abandon Office, Azure and Windows, what happens to their stock value? It tanks. Everyone knows this. Values are based on the hopes of growth. Where the fuck is America going to grow to? They have alienated all their workers and customers. The multiplier effects will be devastating to the US economy.
The tax cuts paired with a shrinking global customer base for US products will rapidly degrade American’s ability to service their debt and their military. It’s all a house of cards.
The first to get out of US debt and equities will get some value before the fall. The last will be left holding the bag and their losses will be enourmous.
