• 10 Posts
  • 31 Comments
Joined 2 months ago
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Cake day: May 6th, 2024

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  • You make it seem like the US’s market will need to experience the same thing eventually.

    You make it seem like it didn’t already: The US market didn’t reach its 1929 peak again until 1954. 25 years is a long time to hold out on withdrawing your retirement investments.

    Here’s two other modern markets:

    The Athens Stock Exchange had peaks in the 2000’s that haven’t recovered.

    Ukraine’s stock market has ceased operations since the invasion.

    These events are rare, but not unheard of.


  • At least as close as anything can be guaranteed in this world

    Turns out “close to guaranteed” is in fact, not “guaranteed.”

    So much so that if you pick any 25 year period over the last 200 years, you won’t find a single instance where the total value of the all traded stocks was worth less at the end than at the start.

    Here’s my 25 how did they do:

    • Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
    • Washington Mutual Inc.
    • General Motors Corporation
    • Enron Corporation
    • WorldCom Inc.
    • CIT Group Inc.
    • Chrysler LLC
    • Thornburg Mortgage Inc.
    • Conseco Inc.
    • MF Global Holdings Ltd.
    • Energy Future Holdings Corp.
    • Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E)
    • Toys “R” Us Inc.
    • Sears Holdings Corporation
    • Blockbuster Inc.
    • Eastman Kodak Company
    • American Airlines (AMR Corporation)
    • Frontier Communications Corporation
    • Hertz Global Holdings Inc.
    • JC Penney
    • Peabody Energy Corporation
    • RadioShack Corporation
    • Remington Outdoor Company
    • Pier 1 Imports Inc.
    • Purdue Pharma L.P.

    (hint: they’ve all filed for bankruptcy at some point)

    Again, look at the Nikkei from the 1990’s - that’s an entire index that was flat for 30 years. Hard to put off retirement for 30 years waiting for that index fund to pay off.

    Don’t bother dying on this hill, son, there’s plenty of other, nicer hills to die on.


  • It becomes gambling when you are going on gut feelings without researching what you’re doing.

    If you have an investment strategy that financial advisors approve of, let’s say investing 70% in a US index fund, 20% bonds and 10% high risk mutual funds that you don’t touch for years or decades, that’s investing.

    If you’re just randomly picking stocks, buying and selling in order to make a quick buck because of some guy screaming at you on television without any real research into a company other than a few google searches, that’s gambling.

    I want to remind everyone that there is no guarantee that the market / index funds continue to go up. It hasn’t happened in the US market, but look at the Nikkei over the last 30 years - if you had invested in the 90s you would only now be getting some of your money back - that is a long time.