for me RAM is a perfected technology, new buses will come, more speed, but it will fundamentally be the same manufacturing process, same materials. The prospect is that LLMs will keep getting larger, more RAM will be required, and the prices will keep getting higher, or along the curve, while the demand will keep up with it because everything has RAM in it. Do you see a point in the future where the industry forks out of this, and there’s an alternative where the end user is not affected as much from the demand of this resource?
Once Chinese companies ramp up production, there’s going to be cheap RAM again. Also, the bubble will pop eventually.
*RAMp up production
I see what you did there
No. Most of the Chinese RAM production is going to Chinese data centers, as per Chinese government mandate.
Sure, that’ll be the priority, but again, look at solar and EVs. Once production ramps up, these things start getting exported globally at way lower prices than western competition.
Yeah if anyone is hoping for cheaper RAM from China flooding western markets. It may happen but it’s not happening this decade. Hope you’re ready to wait until 2030s because that’s how long it’s going to be short of the whole AI thing violently imploding.
Which means Chinese data centers will not buy as much non-chinese RAM any more, so the prices will still fall due to that.
And why would any of these players invest $100b to lower their product’s prices at the risk of overproducing
Might want to ask yourself why Chinese companies did this with stuff like solar panels and EVs, and the answer to your question will come to you.
Chinese century NGL, even with more complex items such as CPUs and GPUs China is coming along in leaps and bounds .
Exactly, and the rate of progress there is just stupefying.